On April 23, in Moscow, an international multimedia press center operated by the Media Group "Rossiya Segodnya" hosted a press conference to present a study conducted by the consulting firm Implementa. The research is titled "Russian Mineral Fertilizers: In Search of an Optimal Path to Market."

This press conference focused on shedding light on the findings of Implementa’s research, which delves into the current state and future prospects of the domestic mineral fertilizer market in Russia. The study identifies crucial factors that are driving demand growth for Russian fertilizers, unveils opportunities for expanding exports, and highlights potential risks that could impact the stability of the industry.

Several significant elements are fueling consistent growth in global demand for mineral fertilizers. These include the rising global population, regional agricultural structures, shifts in crop cultivation patterns, as well as the challenges posed by climate change and soil degradation. It is projected that by 2030, global fertilizer consumption will increase by 11%, with notable demand surges anticipated in Latin America and South Asia.

Russia remains a global leader in fertilizer exports. In 2024, the country is projected to ship approximately 40 million tons of fertilizer products to international markets. The competitiveness of Russian fertilizers is bolstered by low production costs, which help offset the high transportation expenses that can account for up to 30% of the final prices. According to Implementa, under the baseline scenario, Russian export-oriented fertilizer production is expected to increase by more than 15 million tons by 2030. This growth will primarily be driven by enhanced output of urea and potassium chloride. Furthermore, if all announced fertilizer projects, including those still in the early planning stages—referred to as "paper projects"—come to fruition, supply could expand by an additional 8 to 12 million tons by 2030, mainly due to increased urea production.

Almost all Russian fertilizer exports are facilitated through specialized fertilizer terminals located across three major sea basins: the Baltic Sea, the Azov-Black Sea, and the Arctic region. The Baltic Sea plays a particularly crucial role, accounting for 84% of total Russian fertilizer exports in 2024. When considering proximity to rapidly growing consumer markets for mineral fertilizers, Baltic ports are advantageous for deliveries to Europe and Latin America, while southern ports in the Azov-Black Sea region are better positioned for shipping to Asia-Pacific destinations. Special emphasis is also placed on the potential of the Arctic Basin, which offers strategic advantages due to its direct access to the World Ocean, a critical factor in today’s increasingly interconnected global trade environment.

In terms of accessibility to expanding consumer markets for mineral fertilizers, Baltic ports are advantageous for shipments to Europe and Latin America, while the southern ports of the Azov-Black Sea region are better positioned for deliveries to Asia-Pacific destinations. The potential of the Arctic Basin is also noteworthy, as it offers strategic advantages due to its direct access to the World Ocean—an increasingly significant factor given the current geopolitical tensions and plans for the development of the Northern Sea Route.

In light of sanctions, Belarus will continue to rely on Russia’s port and railway infrastructure for shipments to global markets. The Baltic Basin remains the primary export channel for Belarus. Concurrently, land-based logistics are a vital element influencing decisions about shipping routes through specific basins. The Baltic route is favored for both its accessibility and economic efficiency for most Russian and Belarusian producers.

One significant challenge facing Russian fertilizer exports is the inadequacy of port infrastructure. Experts anticipate that by 2030, the Baltic region may experience a shortfall in specialized terminal capacity, estimated to range from 6 to 22 million tons annually. Addressing this issue will necessitate considerable modernization of existing ports and a rapid expansion of new facilities. In contrast, Implementa forecasts a more balanced state of infrastructure in the Azov-Black Sea basin. However, the potential for redirecting exports, coupled with a growing demand for fertilizers in Asian markets and possible shortages in the Baltic region, presents favorable opportunities for infrastructure development in Southern Russia.

Consequently, the stable demand for Russian mineral fertilizers highlights the urgent need for investment in the construction of modern transshipment complexes and transportation infrastructure. This development is essential to ensure a consistent supply to the global market and to support the sustainable growth of the national mineral fertilizer sector.